Sarah Palin, Tiger Woods, the EPA, and Utility Scale Solar

by Rob DeLine on 12/16/09

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"I figure lots of predictions is best. People will forget the ones I get wrong and marvel over the rest." That maxim is attributed to Alan Cox, a Welshman of Linux Kernel and wild hair fame.

I know the end of the year is approaching when I see the annual predictions hitting the newsstands. Most of the prediction game is weak sauce - not very insightful with the very good chance of being spectacularly wrong. "DOW 36,000" anyone? So imagine my surprise when asked to blog my utility scale solar predictions for 2010. An already error prone activity is made more difficult when the target of your task is a regulated market driven by (a) the whims of government, (b) the entrenched positions of utilities, and (c) the very deep pockets of Energy. To compensate for that I'll invoke the spirit of Alan Cox, wax about a range of stuff, and hope there's at least one to marvel over.

In 2010,

Sarah Palin will get credit, regardless of facts, for U.S. House Republican gains in the mid-term elections, but diagramming one of her sentences will continue to prove elusive.
After finding its voice and the legal authority to regulate CO2 as a dangerous pollutant under its existing legislative mandate, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency won't use that power anytime soon and businesses won’t grind to a halt.
South Africa will emerge as a Top 7 solar market worldwide with new PV installations surpassing Spain.
The Minnesota Vikings will crush my soul again.
Solar manufacturing will continue to migrate to China, but a forward thinking state in the U.S. will decide that a fab2farm solar deployment model really can anchor a permanent local ecosystem and will put in steps to capture that opportunity.
There will be a growing body of key decision makers that understand a important barrier to solar PV adoption in the US is the treatment of Tax Credit Normalization and will act to remove that barrier by aligning tax policy with public policy.
The price of natural gas will be as volatile and unpredictable as it has over the past 25 years. (I'm really stretching on this one.) Once solar is in the ground, your cost structure is low, predictable, fixed, essentially guaranteed past 2030.
Tiger Woods will make an Oprah appearance.

There you have it. I'll end with a Bill Vaughan aphorism, "the groundhog is like most other prophets; it delivers its prediction and then disappears." I'm off to holiday vacation and won't be scoring any of my predictions soon.

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Comments

Submitted by Howard Clabo on Sat, 12/19/2009 - 14:24.

I apologize for the issues related to the comments on this post. This blog is committed to a dialogue on the issues and not allowing a comment that disagrees with a post flies directly in the face of that. Thank you for your participation in the discussion.

Howard

Is AMAT so desperate for blog attention they ignore core values?

Submitted by dara on Sat, 12/19/2009 - 04:31.

The comments here are edited as is the perogative. The blog administrators at AMAT Corporate apologize on the phone for the inappropriate comments made above regarding GOV Sarah Palin, but they will not post a comment against the blog author nor will they edit that vulgar, rude comment regarding her in the above-captioned attempt at humor. I find it base, vulgar and AGAINST THE "CORE VALUE" OF "RESPECT FOR THE INDIVIDUAL" that AMAT allegedly touts to all its employees. CEO, Mr. Splinter, would never say out loud in public what his underling, Mr. DeLine, has posted above in reference to GOV Palin. GOV Palin has done much work for the environment in Alaska and needs not be the punchline of a joke. GOV Palin has unique ideas regarding balancing Man's use of Natural resources vs. Commerce. An intelligent person may want to blog about that issue instead of this political pandering effort. Would Mr. DeLine say this about a man? What does Tiger Woods have to do with clean tech anyway? Boys will be boys, I suppose....Is AMAT so desperate for Washington money that we must resort to this type of base rhetoric and political pandering. Corporate affairs says they want this blog to be "provocative". Is there a way to do that without being desperate, pandering, base and cheezy? Just asking? Wondering if they will post this comment..Probably not. They wouldn't in China either....(sorry, inside joke)...

Is this Blog Relevant?

Submitted by Mark on Fri, 12/18/2009 - 08:39.

So I'm wondering how a blog "dedicated to a global discussion about the ideas, actions and products shaping what we believe will be a cleaner, brighter future" is relevant when predictions open with a shot at a politician. And, I can't imagine the relevance of a comment about Tiger Woods, recently shamed and really needing a break from publicity, not more of it.

I note this was written by Rob DeLine.(Rob is a managing director in Applied Materials’ Energy and Environmental Solutions Group. He currently heads up a multi-disciplinary team responsible for business development to downstream audiences and is focused on adoption of utility-scale solar generation. Architect of the fab2farm solar deployment model, Rob spends his days (and nights) addressing key financing, tax and policies issues that will help drive a cleaner energy future.)

So, what sort of company is Applied Materials and why can't it remain above the gratuitous swipes seen in the mainstream media? Come on guys, it's time to focus on relevant topics and your business. If you really mean to be socially conscious, you can start by editing the words of your execs.

Have a great day!

I appreciated the candor and

Submitted by Austin Robinson on Wed, 12/16/2009 - 23:29.

I appreciated the candor and levity. Particularly the "weak sauce" reference, it made me feel young.

you could have been playing dice

Submitted by BrianM on Wed, 12/16/2009 - 08:01.

I will agree with you on your predictions being very Alan Cox'ian and you being a ground hog prophet.

Very little serious business in alternate energy will come about in the USA uintil the federal government sets strategic goals, directly funds solar or alt energy via zero interest loans and or matching funds from the stimulus money....immediately. It will be the largest monetary opportunity that a chief executive ever missed if not done. Why not alt energy being tax free forever as well? We'll have our $500 billion back from the Arabs, we'll have accomplished an even lower pollution level on all fronts. Then at some later date in time everyone can complain that the big (alt)energy companies don't pay taxes. and it will be deja vu all over again!

Palin "Prediction 2010" is base, disrespectful & inappropriate

Submitted by dara on Wed, 12/16/2009 - 05:47.

The above-captioned "2010 Prediction" in reference to GOV Sarah Palin is base, disrespectful and inappropriate content for this blog. Most of all, it is not humorous nor does it reflect the GOOD WORK the GOV. has done on behalf of preserving the environment in balancing natural resources exploration. Do your homework and stop being so partisan. I am so disgusted, as an AMAT employee, the BLOG administrators would allow this type of cheap and cheezy post representing their position on "CLEAN TECH". You will find GOV Sarah Palin has made contributions in Alaska to CLEAN TECH initiatives! This type of misogynistic bullying is neither intelligent, based in fact nor representative of Applied Materials core values of "respect for the individual". One should, at least, respect her position as a duly-elected position in Alaska as GOV as well as her service to her community and COUNTRY. I trust the blog administrators will take note. Thank you for the opportunity to contribute.